China’s Regional Military Posture

By Michael D. Swaine

Some observers of Asia increasingly emphasize the growing importance of globalization and the forces of political, diplomatic, economic, social, and cultural change as key factors shaping the future of the region. Although such variables are unquestionably significant, the history of Asia, past experience concerning changes in the larger international system, and much of our conceptual understanding of how nations interact to shape their environment clearly indicate that military power remains a critical determinant of the security perceptions and behavior of all nations, and hence of the larger Asian and global systems.

Power Shift: China and Asia’s New Dynamics: Introduction

The Rise of China and Asia’s New Dynamics

By David Shambaugh

Asia is changing, and China is a principal cause. The structure of power and parameters of interactions that have characterized international relations in the Asian region over the last half century are being fundamentally affected by, among other factors, China’s growing economic and military power, rising political influence, distinctive diplomatic voice, and increasing involvement in regional multilateral institutions. This volume offers an in-depth and careful assessment of China’s new behavior and linkages with the region. The study further examines the impact that China’s rise, in all of its dimensions, is having on the international relations of Asia, and the implications for the United States.

Power Shift: China and Asia’s New Dynamics

Edited by David Shambaugh
University Of California Press Berkeley, 2005

Contents

Introduction: The Rise of China and Asia’s New Dynamics (David Shambaugh)

Part One: China and The Changing Asian Landscape
1. Return to the Middle Kingdom? China and Asia in the Early Twenty-First Century (David Shambaugh)
2. China’s Regional Strategy (Zhang Yunling and Tang Shiping)

Part Two: The Economic Dimension
3. China’s Regional Trade and Investment Profile (Hideo Ohashi)
4. China’s Regional Economies and the Asian Region: Building Interdependent Linkages (Robert F. Ash)

Part Three: Politics and Diplomacy
5. China-Japan Relations: Downward Spiral or a New Equilibrium? (Mike M. Mochizuki)
6. China’s Ascendancy and the Korean Peninsula: From Interest Reevaluation to Strategic Realignment? (Jae Ho Chung)
7. Taiwan Faces China: Attraction and Repulsion (Richard Bush)
8. China and Southeast Asia: The Context of a New Beginning (Wang Gungwu)
9. China’s Influence in Central and South Asia: Is It Increasing? (John W. Garver)
10. China and Russia: Normalizing Their Strategic Partnership (Yu Bin)

Part Four: Security
11. China’s Evolving Regional Security Strategy (Bates Gill)
12. China’s Regional Military Posture Michael (D. Swaine)

Part Five: Implications for the United States
13. China’s Regional Strategy and Why It May Not Be Good for America (Robert Sutter)
14. China’s Rise in Asia Need Not Be at America’s Expense (David M. Lampton)

Part Six: Implications for the Asian Region
15. The Transformation of the Asian Security Order: Assessing China’s Impact (Jonathan D. Pollack)
16. The Evolving Asian Order: The Accommodation of Rising Chinese Power (Michael Yahuda)

The Regional Dimension: Jemaah Islamiyah

Background

JI is an active jihadist terrorist group with purported historic links to al-Qaeda. The group currently enjoys a concerted presence in Indonesia and, to a lesser extent, the Philippines and is known to have had established cells in Malaysia and Singapore. It has also tried to entrench an operational and logistical foothold in both southern Thailand and Cambodia. The United States designated JI a foreign terrorist organization in October 2002, shortly after the first Bali attacks (discussed later). The group was subsequently added to the United Nations’ (UN’s) list of proscribed entities, a move that requires all member states to freeze its assets, deny it access to funding, and prevent its cadres from entering or traveling through their territories (Manyin et al., 2004, p. 5).¹

The Evolving Terrorist Threat to Southeast Asia: A Net Assessment: Introduction

Terrorism is not new to Southeast Asia. Indeed, for much of the Cold War, the activities of a variety of domestic ethnonationalist and religious militant groups posed what was arguably one of the most signifcant challenges to the internal stability of several countries across the region. Tese violent organizations arose in reaction to the unwillingness of many Southeast Asian governments to acknowledge or recognize the right of minority self-determination. Such reticence essentially owed itself to an implicit fear that acceding to even limited ethnonationalist demands would result in an unstoppable secessionist tide, challenging the very basis of statehood that underscored Southeast Asian post-colonial identity (Acharya, 1993, p. 19; see also Christie, 1996; Jeshurun, 1985; Joo-Jock and Vani, 1984; D. Brown, 1994; Findlay, 1996; and Nathan, 1997).

The Evolving Terrorist Threat to Southeast Asia: A Net Assessment: Summary

The Current Terrorist Threat

Overall, the terrorist threat to the countries covered in this monograph remains a serious but largely manageable security problem. In Tailand, while the scale and scope of Islamist-inspired violence in the three southern Malay provinces of Yala, Pattani, and Narathiwat have become more acute since 2004, the confict has (thus far) not spread to the country’s majority non-Muslim population nor has it taken on an anti-Western dimension.¹ Indeed, at the time of this writing, outside demagogues and radicals had singularly failed to gain any concerted logistical or ideological foothold in the region, which suggests that Tailand’s so-called “deep south” is unlikely to become a new hub for furthering the transregional designs of fundamentalist jihadi elements.

The Evolving Terrorist Threat to Southeast Asia: A Net Assessment

Peter Chalk, Angel Rabasa, William Rosenau, Leanne Piggott
RAND Corporation 2009

Contents

Preface

Summary

1. Introduction
2. Malay Muslim extremism in Southern Tailand
3. Muslim and Communist extremism in the Philippines
4. Terrorism and National Security in Indonesia
5. The regional Dimension: Jemaah Islamiyah
6. Counterterrorism and National Security in Tailand
7. Counterterrorism and National Security in the Philippines
8. Counterterrorism and National Security in Indonesia
9. National Security in Southeast Asia: The U.S. Dimension
10. Conlusion

The Talibanization of Southeast Asia: Losing the War on Terror to Islamist Extremists: Introduction

Behind the Veil of Successful Counterterrorism

Prior to the September 11, 2001 (hereafter the 9/11 Incident), attacks on the United States, governments and security planners in Southeast Asia had already been preoccupied with the threat posed by religious extremism and terrorism. There is a long history of both secular and religious-oriented terrorism in the region. In particular, the region has long been threatened by Jihadists, armed Islamist groups who declared war against various central governments with the goal of either gaining greater political autonomy, as was the case in southern Thailand and the Philippines, or outright secession, as was the case in Aceh, Indonesia.

The Talibanization of Southeast Asia: Losing the War on Terror to Islamist Extremists: Preface

Southeast Asia had been afflicted with the danger of terrorism, long before the United States and the Western world became aware of the threat in the wake of September 11, 2001 (hereafter referred to as the 9/11 Incident), attacks on New York and Washington. Various enduring factors such as historical developments, nature of geography, ethnic-religious makeup, accessibility to external forces, the role of extraneous actors in dominating the politics and economy of the region, and the nature of regimes in the region have entrenched terrorism, particularly associated with religious extremism in the region. This was evident in Indonesia, Thailand, Myanmar, and the Philippines since the end of the Second World War in 1945.

The Talibanization of Southeast Asia: Losing the War on Terror to Islamist Extremists

Bilveer Singh
Praeger Security International, London, 2007

(Bilveer Singh is Associate Professor of Political Science at the National University of Singapore. A former Fulbright Scholar, he is also the author of nine books, including Succession Politics in Indonesia: The 1998 Presidential Elections and the Fall of Suharto (2000), Defense Relations between Australia and Indonesia in the Post-Cold War Era (2002), and Politics and Government in Singapore: An Introduction (2007))

Contents

Preface

Abbreviations

Glossary of Key Islamic Terms

Chronology: The Al-Jama’ah Al-Islamiyyah in Southeast Asia

Introduction: Behind the Veil of Successful Counterterrorism

1. Religious Extremism and Terrorism: A Conceptual Framework
2. Southeast Asia’s Experience with Old and New Islamist Extremism and Jihadism
3. The Rise of Al-Jama’ah Al-Islamiyyah as Southeast Asia’s Leading: Transnational Terrorist Organization
4. Counterterrorism in Southeast Asia: One Step Forward, Two Steps Backward?

Conclusion: Southeast Asia’s Failure in Its War on Terror against Islamist Extremism and the Road Ahead

Appendix 1: General Guidelines on the Struggle of Jama’ah Islamiyyah

Appendix 2: ASEAN Agreements on Combating Terrorism

Appendix 3: ASEAN’s AJAI Operatives Who Have Been Detained, Released, or Killed (as of June 2007)