By Uzi Mahnaimi in Tel Aviv and Sarah Baxte
The Times, 05/07/09
The head of Mossad, Israel’s overseas intelligence service, has assured Benjamin Netanyahu, its prime minister, that Saudi Arabia would turn a blind eye to Israeli jets flying over the kingdom during any future raid on Iran’s nuclear sites.
Earlier this year Meir Dagan, Mossad’s director since 2002, held secret talks with Saudi officials to discuss the possibility.
The Associated Press
AP News
Jul 02, 2009 11:38 EST
Developments in North Korea’s missile program:
- Aug. 31, 1998: North Korea fires suspected missile over Japan and into the Pacific Ocean, calling it a satellite.
- Sept. 13, 1999: North Korea pledges to freeze long-range missile tests.
Continue reading ‘Chronology of North Korea’s missile program’
A Joint Threat Assessment by U.S. and Russian Technical Experts
May 2009
Foreword
1. Introduction
Iran’s nuclear program
Ballistic missile defense and the threat from Iran
This report
2. The Iranian Nuclear Program
The possible military dimensions of Iran’s nuclear program
General assessment of the Iranian Nuclear Program
The path to a bomb
Conclusions on the Iranian Nuclear Program
Recommendations
3. Iran’s Ballistic Missile Program
Technical details of Iran’s Ballistic Missiles
The Iranian space program and its implications for ballistic missile development
Prospects for ballistic missile development in Iran: major technological obstacles and barriers
Ballistic missiles with existing technologies
The Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR)and the Iranian Ballistic Missile program
The North Korean test and its implications for Iran
Conclusions
4. Defense against Iranian Ballistic Missiles
The U.S.-European Integrated Missile Defense
The challenges of ballistic missile defense
Countermeasures
Attacks with more than one or two missiles
Defending both Europe and the United States
Target discrimination
Russian Concerns about the European Missile Defense System
Conclusion
5. Conclusions and Recommendations
The Iranian Programs
U.S.-Russian relations
Recommendations
The fall of Iraqi President Saddam Hussein in 2003 and the war in Iraq have affected sweeping changes in the strategic landscape of the Middle East, radically shifting the regional balance of power. Old security paradigms have been thrown into question, and local states appear to be reaffirming, renegotiating, or rethinking their relations with one another and with outside powers. Saudi Arabia and Iran have in many respects been the central players in this unfolding transformation. The dynamic relations between the two powers have affected the Persian Gulf, Iraq, Lebanon, and Palestine with important implications for regional stability and U.S. interests.
Continue reading ‘Saudi-Iranian Relations Since the Fall of Saddam: Rivalry, Cooperation, and Implications for U.S. Policy: Summary’
Saudi-Iranian Relations Since the Fall of Saddam: Rivalry, Cooperation, and Implications for U.S. Policy: Preface and Contents
Frederic Wehrey, Theodore W. Karasik, Alireza Nader, Jeremy Ghez, Lydia Hansell, Robert A. Guffey
National Security Research Division
RAND Corporation 2009
Sponsored by the Smith Richardson Foundation NATIONAL SECURITY RESEARCH DIVISION
The research described in this report was sponsored by the Smith Richardson Foundation and was conducted under the auspices of the International Security and Defense Policy Center within the RAND National Security Research Division (NSRD). NSRD conducts research and analysis for the Office of the Secretary of Defense, the Joint Staff, the Unified Commands, the defense agencies, the Department of the Navy, the Marine Corps, the U.S. Coast Guard, the U.S. Intelligence Community, allied foreign governments, and foundations.
Continue reading ‘Saudi-Iranian Relations Since the Fall of Saddam: Rivalry, Cooperation, and Implications for U.S. Policy: Preface and Contents’
US Aircraft and Elite Navy SEALs Defeat Three Somalis in a Lifeboat
By Glen Ford
Black Agenda Report, 15/04/09
“An estimated $300 million worth of Somali sea life is pirated by foreigners every year.”
What a weekend for American foreign policy! The United States Navy, backed up by warships from 20 other nations, knocked off three Somali guys crouching with rifles in a lifeboat tied by a rope to a U.S. destroyer. To hear the U.S. corporate media tell it, the Americans had won a huge victory over the forces of evil. The sole surviving Somali was in custody-a 16-year-old who essentially gave himself up, earlier, after being hurt in a scuffle with the American cargo ship captain who is now celebrated as a hero of the seven seas and defender of United States national honor.
Continue reading ‘US Has Won a Huge Victory’
By Najad Abdullahi
Al Jazeera, 15/04/09
Somali pirates have accused European firms of dumping toxic waste off the Somali coast and are demanding an $8m ransom for the return of a Ukranian ship they captured, saying the money will go towards cleaning up the waste.
Continue reading ‘‘Toxic waste’ behind Somali piracy’
Israel and the Clash of Civilisations
Iraq, Iran and the Plan to Remake the Middle East
By Jonathan Cook
Pluto Press, Londonm, 2008
Contents
Preface
1. Regime Overthrow in Iraq
The body count keeps growing
A war for oil
US policy in the Gulf
Containing Saddam
The neocon vision of the Middle East
Finding a pretext to invade
Israel’s role behind the scenes
Continue reading ‘Israel and the Clash of Civilisations’
Iran-Ideology and Strategy
Historically, fears and obsessive preoccupation with foreign interference, blended with impotence in the face of foreign inluence, have formed the basis of Iranian nationalism. Geography; the need to secure the country’s territorial integrity; competition with other empires (such as the Ottoman Empire); meddling in Iran’s internal afairs by Western/Eastern powers such as Russia, Britain, and the United States; geopolitics and “an acute awareness of the weight of history” have a special place in determining Iranian foreign policy. At the same time, the perception among most Iranians that Iran has been able to overcome outside pressures has allowed for the rise of an “arrogance of nonsubmission.” Ayatollah Khomeini’s celebrated phrase, “America cannot do anything” is a good example of this tendency.(7)
Continue reading ‘Iran-Syria-Hizballah-Hamas: Historical Background’
A Coalition Against Nature
Why Does It Work ?
by Ely Karmon, Ph.D.
The Proteus Monograph Series
Volume 1, Issue 5
May 2008
About the Author
Dr. Ely Karmon has written extensively on international terrorism and has participated to numerous international conferences. His book entitled “Coalitions between Terrorist Organizations. Revolutionaries, Nationalists, Islamists (1968-2000)” was published in 2005 by Martinus Nijhof Publishers. Dr. Karmon is a Senior Research Scholar at the International Policy Institute for Counter-terrorism, and since 2003, also at he Institute for Policy and Strategy, he Interdisciplinary Center, Herzliya, Israel.
Dr. Karmon holds a B.A. in English and French Culture from the Hebrew University, Jerusalem. He earned both his M.A and Ph.D. from Haifa University. He took a Licence in International Relations from the Institut d’Etudes Politiques, and a Licence in Bantu languages from the Ecole de Langues Orientales, Paris.
He has been a Senior Research Scholar at the International Policy Institute for Counter-Terrorism in Herzliya since 1997. He lectured on Terrorism and Guerrilla in Modern Times at he Interdisciplinary Center, Herzliya and at the IDF Military College; on International Terrorism at Bar-Ilan University, Israel (2002/3); and on the subjects of International Terrorism and European Extremist Parties and Organizations at Haifa University (1992-2000).
Dr. Karmon was the Shari and Herb Rosen visiting fellow at he Washington Institute for Near East Policy in 2002, which published his policy paper “Fight on All Fronts: Hizballah, the War on Terror, and the War in Iraq” (December 2003). He is a member of the International Permanent Observatory (IPO) on Security Measures during Majors Events at the United Nations Interregional Crime and Justice Research Institute (UNICRI), Turin, and an Associate Fellow at the International Centre for the Study of Radicalisation and Political Violence (ICSR), London, UK.
Dr. Karmon has been involved in several NATO workshops on terrorism and on the Mediterranean Dialogue. He also serves as advisor to the Israeli Ministry of Defense, and served as advisor of the Anti-Semitism Monitoring Forum of the Israeli Government Secretariat.
Table of Contents
Introduction
Historical Background
The Building of the Triple Alliance: Iran, Syria, Hizballah (1980-1992)
The Building of the “Axis of Destabilization” (1992-2001)
The “Axis of Destabilization” after 9/11 and the War in Iraq
The “Axis” Involvement in Iraq
The Second Lebanon War (July-August 2006
The United States and Western Strategies in Challenging the “Axis of Destabilization”
Israel’s Counter-terrorism Strategy
Achievements of the “Axis of Destabilization”
The Alliance: Future Scenarios
The Predicament of the Iranian Nuclear Project
Endnotes
Bibliography
Continue reading ‘Iran-Syria-Hizballah-Hamas’
The following text is a transcript of Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin’s speech at the opening ceremony of the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. Jan. 28, 2009
By Vladimir Putin
Wall Street Journals, 03/02/09
Good afternoon, colleagues, ladies and gentlemen,
I would like to thank the forum’s organisers for this opportunity to share my thoughts on global economic developments and to share our plans and proposals.
Continue reading ‘The Perfect Storm’
By Howard J. Gale
Seattle Post-Intelligencer, 02/02/09
“Every bomb ever made falls on all of us.” (Alice Walker)
Israel has dropped tens of thousands of pounds of U.S.-made and/or U.S.-paid-for munitions on one of the most densely populated regions on Earth. Israel has been firing on known United Nations schools, killing dozens of civilians.
Continue reading ‘Innocence, Morality Ravaged in Gaza’
By Turki al-Faisal
Financial Times, 31/01/09
(Prince Turki is chairman, King Faisal Centre for Research and Islamic Studies, Riyadh. He has been director of Saudi intelligence, ambassador to the UK and Ireland and ambassador to the US.)
In my decades as a public servant, I have strongly promoted the Arab-Israeli peace process. During recent months, I argued that the peace plan proposed by Saudi Arabia could be implemented under an Obama administration if the Israelis and Palestinians both accepted difficult compromises. I told my audiences this was worth the energies of the incoming administration for, as the late Indian diplomat Vijaya Lakshmi Nehru Pandit said: “The more we sweat in peace, the less we bleed in war.”
Continue reading ‘Saudi Patience is Running Out’
Jang Pakistan, 29/01/09
(Media massa-termasuk Indonesia-seringkali menyampaikan berita tidak seimbang. Berulangkali, mereka sering mengutip sumber info dari Israel bahwa Hamas tidak akan mengakui Israel. Padahal, yang terjadi adalah sebaliknya: Hamas siap mengakui Israel jika Israel keluar dari wilayah yang diduduki sejak 1967. Kini, masalahnya adalah apakah Israel mau melaksanakannya?)
Hamas would recognise Israel if it withdraws to its pre-1967 borders, a French Jewish writer said this week after meeting the exiled leader of the Palestinian Islamist movement, Khaled Meshaal.
“He told me that Hamas was prepared to recognise Israel on the lines of June 4, 1967. He told me so several times,” Marek Halter told AFP on Monday.
Continue reading ‘‘Hamas would recognise Israel within 1967 borders’’
5. Conclusion: Expanded, Long-Term U.S. Commitment Needed
The security challenges of Pakistan’s tribal areas lie at the center of broader regional and global threats to stability. The best way to meet these challenges is through enhanced partnership with the political and security institutions of the Pakistani state, and the best way to improve this cooperation is by planning, organizing, and budgeting for a decades-long U.S. commitment to the region. Pakistan’s recent history of turbulence and the threat of another 9/11-type attack provide a political impetus for significantly expanded action by the next White House.
The precise scale-in dollar terms-of U.S. assistance in Pakistan is not addressed in this report because the next administration should first undertake its own review of Pakistan’s civilian and security requirements. This sort of review would represent a healthy corrective from recent practice. Washington’s commitments to Pakistan after 9/11-President Bush’s five-year $3 billion package and the recent five-year $750 million pledge for the FATA-were driven by political and diplomatic concerns, not prior U.S. needs-based assessments. That said, in the context of building a stronger bilateral partnership, the next administration must also bear in mind the symbolic and political significance of fulfilling prior commitments to Islamabad. This report therefore recommends that the Bush administration’s pledges of $600 million per year (half civilian, half military) should serve as a baseline for new commitments. Additional funding may be needed to support the short- and long-term goals outlined throughout this report, from strengthening governance to building security institutions that are capable of a full range of counterinsurgency and counterter ror missions.
Continue reading ‘Securing Pakistan’s Tribal Belt (5)’
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